The Entertainment Strategy Guide to 11-October-19
Independent Film Predictions, He-Man, and Inside Disney's Streaming
Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter! My favorite reads, listens, socials and more to keep you informed on the business of entertainment, with the links to my recent writing on my website and elsewhere.
Can you feel the excitement in the air? In November, the (hashtag) streaming wars kick off for real. With both Disney and Apple starting in earnest. I’ve been getting ready by writing two different series, tackling separate, but related issues. So we have a fun few weeks coming up.
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The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
“Predicting Independent Film Sales in 2020 and Beyond” at Linked-In.
I enjoy making prediction with numbers. But it’s tough. Which most people neglect to point out when (for example) they confidently tell you who will and won’t win the streaming wars. My latest article at Linked-In took some research I’ve done for a consulting gig and shared what I learned. Essentially, predicting how feature film sales will look for independent films is really all about what Netflix and Amazon (and other streamers) decide to do. Meaning it’s impossible to predict.
(Here’s an example of another data set I built to make a prediction on sports media rights.)
“Most Important Story of the Week: Evolving Feature Film Strategies By The Streamers” at my website.
Why is Sony looking into buying He-Man? Why did Amazon make Aeronauts? What are both streamers going to do going forward? Well, I don’t know about that last question, but I have a few theses for why the streamers are going for cheaper films and looking more and more and franchises. (It’s about return on investment, not just costs or popularity.) That plus NCB-Universal shake up thoughts, TV ratings and email (and how it crushes productivity).
Twitter Threads
My most popular Tweet of the week concerns my pet peeve:
After that, here’s my thread on subscribers and a certain incumbent:
The Best of The Rest
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Long Read of the Week - “Inside Disney’s New York Stream Factory”
I’ve been obsessed with “user experience” (UX) recently. It comes up all the time when debating the streaming wars, but means everything from payments to recommendations engines to simply “looks pretty”. It’s really important, but I don’t think anyone has quantified it well. That long intro is all to say, this article is a long look at Disney’s executive and team working on this issue. (Hat tip to the PARQOR newsletter for point this out.)
Other Long Read - “Industry Voices—Ring: The TV bundle is fracturing. Are RSNs on the fault line?” By Brian Ring in Fierce Video
Twitter friend Brian Ring brings some data to one of the most important questions facing live TV: how much do cable customers really want sports? Specifically, regional sports networks. Yes this is a survey—normally surveys in articles are overhyped—but he explains his methodology and its limitations. I plan to use this data future article.
Listen of the Week - TV Top Five “Four Is The New Six”
At first, I was just going to link to their episode two weeks back, but then Friday they released another good one. (Albeit, a bit sad for one of the hosts.) Between the last two episodes they cover how Netflix isn’t renewing series at the same rate, discuss what TNT/TBS/HBO are doing (or not doing?) and explain the NBC-Universal leadership shake up. (As a bonus, this Business Insider article brings some data to the renewal discussion and how Netflix series aren’t making it past four seasons.)
Listen of the Week - Fireside Chat with Andrew Rosen and Andrew Freedman
Technically this is a video, but I listened and took notes. (Full disclosure, I had slo many ideas I’m only halfway through.) They cover a lot of UX topics in particular, like how Netflix knows how to “get people to click” and watch content. (UX again!) Take a watch/listen.
Newsletter of the Week - The Streaming Wars by Kirby Grines
I’ve been finding some good links in Kirby Grines’ newsletter. For example, his issue from August pointed out two additional links on UX (see, I’m obsessed with it), including this one on Vudu. Walmart is really pushing the family friendly vibe, and I’m curious how Disney responds.
Then, he dropped his latest on platform taxes with a personal experience about these issues. Here’s another article of his on the same subject.
Twitter Threads
Since I love ratings, Patrick Crakes has my Twitter thread of the week on Nielsen changes:
Updates
Wednesday is Netflix quarterly earnings day, so I’ll be live tweeting after digesting the news. Also, expect a recap on any strategic insights the day after. Plus I should have a few guest articles at other sites going up through the week. (Fingers crossed.(
(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.)