Peak Fortnite, Apple TV+ Prices, Fake Instagram Followers and Bass Diffusion
|Sep 16||Public post|
Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter! The best source for all my writings of the last week, along with the best reads, listens, socials and more to keep you informed on the business of entertainment.
I spend the weekend at Kaaboo Music Festival in Del Mar, so I’m a little late today, but the festival inspired some thoughts for future articles on the business of live entertainment. Plus Dave Matthews Band, Little Steven and the Disciples of Soul, the Revivalists, and Mix Master Mike were incredible.
The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
Companies launching new products often experience periods of double digit percentage growth. While we usually see this covered in the press with excitement, it’s fairly common, especially for innovative products. This phenomenon is so ordinary, it has a mathematical model for it, which I explain in this article.
“Have We Passed Peak Fortnite?” At Linked-In
To show that the Bass Diffusion model isn’t just an academic concept, I apply it to a current business. In my latest at Linked-In, I show how Fortnite’s adoption perfect matches a Bass Diffusion curve. Most importantly, Fortnite will likely top out at around 300 million total users.
The news of the week was Apple TV+ announcing a launch date (November 1st) and price point ($4.99). From this, I saw a few numbers and explanations floated that just don’t hold to scrutiny, which I debunk in my weekly column. That plus Amazon leaving theaters, Miramax’s potential sale to SuperCBS, Netflix drops in bandwidth rankings and a few EntStratGuy updates.
“Introducing the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter” at my website.
If you’re reading this, you know I have a newsletter. But why do you need another one? I explained my rationale for launching here.
My Twitter Threads of the Week
- A thread on how to react to early NFL ratings
- Apple TV+ price per episode comparison
The Best of The Rest
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Long Read of the Week - “Fighting Instagram's $1.3 Billion Problem—Fake Followers”
I’m fairly obsessed with fake followers and viewers on social media platforms, especially Twitch. So read Wired’s latest entry by Emily Grey Ellis another entry in a much too common problem that has ramifications for every part of the value chain. Hat tip to the Deal Book newsletter for pointing me to it.
Other Long Read - “Apple’s Arcade Seeks to Upend Another Business Model” at Bloomberg
Shira Ovide describes the pros and cons of Apple Arcade fairly succinctly in her latest column. It was a refreshing take on the other new subscription Apple is launching. I especially like the point about Apple News…we haven’t heard much from that recently have we? My tentative thought is that Apple Arcade solves a legitimate problem for a target segment; Apple TV+ does not.
Other Long Read - “How Film Producers Became the New Expendables” in THR
As long as writers and below-the-line talent is getting squeezed, we may as well add non-creative producers to the mix.
Since I spent the weekend rocking, it makes sense to share two recent podcasts from the NPR Planet Money team on music and festivals. Take a listen to both, but I’ll mention that both feature the most important shape in entertainment, logarithmic distribution.
Newsletter of the Week - “Our Brains Are Not Multi-Threaded”
Cal Newport has influenced my thinking more than any other author in the last five years. His Deep Work is a must read, and this blog post debunks a common myth that humans can multi-task.
Twitter Thread of the Week
I love a good debunking of media narratives with actual data, which TV Grim Reaper does on TV viewing habits in this thread.
(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, I prefer writing articles to sending emails/attending meetings, so I launched my own website.)