The Entertainment Strategy Guide to 6-October-20
Mulan versus Tenet, Who Won September, Nielsen Top Ten, Animation and More
Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter! My favorite reads, listens, socials and more to keep you informed on the business of entertainment, with the links to my recent writing on my website and elsewhere.
The theme of the last two weeks for me is data, data and data. I’ve been scouring the internet for all the numbers I can find. What started as a quest to figure out how well Mulan has been doing expanded into a mission to quantify how all the streamers are performing in the content wars. As much as we complain about knowing so little data, we’re increasingly getting peeks inside each of these major streamers.
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The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
“‘The Boys’ Vs. ‘Ted Lasso’ Vs. ‘Cobra Kai’: Which Show Won September 2020?” at Decider
Back in July, I tried to declare a winner among several buzzy straight-to-streaming film releases. I had so much fun and Decider enjoyed it, so we’ve made it a recurring feature! In the latest round, I look back over the last two months of content releases (The Boys! Umbrella Academy! Mulan! Cobra Kai!), and parse data from Google, Nielsen, 7 Park, Reelgood and Parrot Analytics to judge a winner. Read the whole thing to find out who won.
“The Content Battles are Competitive in the Streaming Wars” at my website.
In the tradition of Hollywood, this is a spinoff from my Decider article. (Even writers are rebooting and spinning off franchises.) One article couldn’t contain all the insights. The theme I kept seeing is that the content wars are increasingly competitive. A year ago, this was only Netflix’s game. (Even Amazon struggled to launch hits.) Now, Disney+, Hulu, and Amazon are competing. Check out this chart from 7 Park analytics:
Read the entire thing to understand why this is important and the data I’m monitoring going forward.
"Should Disney Have Released Mulan to PVOD?: Part III of “Should Your Film Go Straight-To-Streaming?” at my website.
If one question in September could say more about the future of filmed entertainment, I’d love to see it. Whether or not traditional studios, blockbuster films, theaters and streamers can survive and thrive depends on the answer to the above question. If PVOD can’t replace traditional entertainment revenues, then the entire business model of blockbusters is at risk.
(Read the previous entries in this series here or here.)
“Mulan vs Tenet: I (Don’t) Declare a Winner” at my website.
This is Part II of my mini-series on Mulan’s performance at PVOD. In this installment, I look at Mulan’s potential international revenue gross and compare that to Tenet’s underwhelming box office. While ostensibly I set out to declare a winner, realistically this competition is still ongoing. (Read Part I—my most popular article of the year—on Mulan’s opening weekend here.)
“Most Important Story of the Week: We’re Heading for the (Almost) Worst Case Scenario For Theaters” at my website.
Well, we’re firmly headed for the worst case for theaters in 2020. Most of the tentpoles have been pushed to 2020, with the latest casualties being Dune and the next James Bond. Read my thoughts on theaters from two weeks back in this column, plus the latest sports rights deal, some data points on subscribers and theme parks.
“Most Important Story of the Week: Google’s New Chromecast (And Netflix Offer)” at my website.
Google is making an aggressive push into TV with its latest Chromecast update. It has a lot of ground to make up to catch Roku or Amazon, but Google clearly plans to compete. I’d add, this is another data point showing that, as much as we’re watching the streaming wars, the “device wars” are just as fierce.
Plus, I add a new data point to the Mulan’s calculations: Nielsen’s weekly top ten for the United States. That plus Disney lay offs, small films and Quibi up for sale.
Twitter Threads
Here’s my thoughts on the Nielsen data release from October 1st where two new streamers made the list for the first time:
EntStrategyGuy in Other Places
I got my first link from the Washington Post, so thank you to Sonny Bunch. Also, CrossScreenMedia cited my Mulan analysis in this article.
The Best Content of the Last Two Weeks
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Long Read of the Week - “The Case For Independent Entertainment Web Sites” by Rick Ellis at All Your Screens
Rick Ellis covers probably the most important story in entertainment journalism, which is the merger between the parent companies of Deadline, Rolling Stone, Variety and The Hollywood Reporter. In other words, almost all of the major outlets covering the business of entertainment. He focuses on the entertainment angles, but he’s absolutely right that the industry needs more independent voices.
Other Long Read - “TV’s Future Will Be More Animated” by Allison Herman at The Ringer
I’ve been sitting on this take for a while now after a source reviewed how much animated content they were making. So I’m jealous Herman beat me to the punch, but she explains fairly well the production realities leading to an increase in animated content. I’d add, given the ease at dubbing animated content (and redoing jokes for local context) it make travel even better than other types of content.
Newsletter of the Week - PARQOR “Five Mic Drops”
Andrew Rosen and I are usually sparring partners on Twitter, but he challenges my thinking in a good way. He’s been taking a victory lap for his predictions for 2020 and while I don’t agree with all of them (in particular Disney+), it’s a good read on the streaming landscape.
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(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.)