The Entertainment Strategy Guide to 12-June-2020
More AT&T Thoughts, Kardashian Gimmicky Numbers, Inside Apple's Splashy Acquisition and more
Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter! My favorite reads, listens, socials and more to keep you informed on the business of entertainment, with the links to my recent writing on my website and elsewhere.
I took last week off for a “socially distanced” vacation up in the mountains. It was relaxing, but it means we’ll be a little bit light on my writings from the last two weeks. I’ll make it up with some great long reads to hold you over.
As a reminder, I’ve moved this newsletter to every other week, so look out for the next edition at the end of the month.
(If this email was forwarded to you, sign up to receive all future emails or follow me on Twitter, Linked-In or at my website.
The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
“AT&T Really is Going All In, Amazon is the New Standard Oil, and Extra Thoughts on the HBO Max Launch” at my website.
HBO Max not being available on Roku and Fire devices is the fiery car crash of entertainment business I can’t avoid looking at. Yet, car crash is too strong since I’m with AT&T: they should hold off caving to a “channels” business because it risks their core business proposition. Yet, if my feed is indication, customers are furious. I also provide my “review” of HBO Max and, for the first time, answer listener questions.
“Most Important Story of the Week – 5 June 20: We’re All Streamers Now, a Look at Fall Broadcast TV” at my website.
In May, we got our first glimpse at how the broadcast networks plan to handle the fall release calendar. It turns out if you gear your entire content planning schedule around a pilot season in the spring, and a global virus wipes that out, you don’t have a lot of options. Which has pushed some networks to getting fairly creative, particularly the CW and Fox. Read all about that, plus plans for returning to work and some data on Roku/Amazon users.
Cited at Too Much TV by All Your Screens Rick on the Broadcast Season
All Your Screen’s newsletter cites my latest column and provides some great insights about Netflix and their content schedule versus the broadcast networks.
Twitter Threads
My goal is to explain the business behind entertainment, and this thread explains my “rule of thumb” for production timelines. I used this doing content planning for a streamer. It’s a long thread, but a good one. (Maybe my most retweeted/liked thread of all time.)
The Best of The Rest
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Long Read of the Week - “Inside Kylie Jenner’s Web of Lies and Why She’s No Longer a Billionaire” by Chase Peterson-Withorn and Madeline Berg at Forbes
I’m a fan of any and all takedowns of business numbers. Especially celebrity numbers! This has to be one of the greatest recent entries. And I’m not putting this here just because it’s salacious. (Kardashians get you clicks.) Instead, I’ve long felt that certain press articles hyping celebrity wealth provide a skewed view of how business really works. This article speaks to that. If you believed in Jenner’s wealth, you could overvalue Instagram influencers, for just one example.
Read the whole thing, and remind yourself the next time you read about a celebrity’s over-the-top success that there may be a hidden story beneath the hype.
Other Long Read - “Behind Scorsese's 'Killers' Apple Deal: $200M+ Budget, "Low-Risk" for Paramount” by Kim Masters at THR
I’m a fan of Master’s work in general and this is another great example where she tells the story of the drama behind Martin Scorsese’s latest, while also illustrating how Hollywood does or doesn’t make money. In this case, it’s kind of incredible that every Scorsese film since 2010 hasn’t made money, but Paramount has by acting as a distributor. (Though making much less than if the films were genuine hits, but they aren’t losing money.) Now, the financing has moved on to the tech giants like Netflix and Apple.
(Did Scorsese’s last film make money? Well if you’ve been reading the EntStrategyGuy you know the answer to that. Maybe someday I’ll get Masters to link to my analysis.)
Other Long Read - “The long, ugly history between Disney and Studio Ghibli” by Josh Spiegel
Disney expert Spiegel provides the explanation for why all of Studio Ghibli’s films are on HBO Max and not Disney+. While I’d be a little more charitable to Disney—the films didn’t perform at the box office—it’s a good read for the longer background. And likely Disney undervalued having these rights.
Other Long Read - “We overestimate the value of the console exclusive” by Jeff Grubb at Venture Beat
Right after celebrity takedowns are articles explaining that originals can be over-hyped. In this case, Grubb does that for the video game console business, which is an area I hadn’t considered. Also, I’d emphasize this is a nuanced (“aggressively moderate”) take. Grubb isn’t saying originals don’t matter, just they are over-weighted in the analysis. A+ take on that.
(Previously, I’ve wondered why Youtube felt the need to make expensive originals when their users do it for them.)
Non-Entertainment Read - “Four Weddings & A Funeral” by Scott Galloway
I don’t agree with Galloway on everything, but his takes on the battles between the tech giants are always worth reading. In this case, he provides some intriguing M&A and strategy advice for Netflix, Twitter and Apple, with an “I told ya so” for Quibi.
(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.)