The Entertainment Strategy Guide to 21 Sep 20
Mulan’s 1.2 User Opening Weekend, Apple One, Tyler Perry, X-Box and More
Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter! My favorite reads, listens, socials and more to keep you informed on the business of entertainment, with the links to my recent writing on my website and elsewhere.
The theme of September has to be “lingering”. The impacts of Covid-19 continues to haunt entertainment, from Tenet’s box office to Mulan’s unknown US sales to declines in sports ratings. Even streaming is feeling the pain as growth is no longer booming, but they’re feeling the impact of production halts. It’s going to be an interesting fall.
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The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
“1.2 Million Folks Bought Mulan in the US During It’s Opening Weeknd: The (Not) Definitive Analysis of Disney’s Mulan Experiment” at my website.
If you like data, you’ll love this article. The biggest unknown in streaming is how many folks purchased Mulan on Disney+. My answer? About 1.2 million US customers on its opening weekend which implies it will gross about $90 million in revenue through this November. Read the whole thing as I break down 6 different data sources and provide over a dozen charts/tables.
“How Fortnite vs Apple Could Impact The Streaming Wars: Imagining a ‘Maximalist’ Scenario” at my website.
Fortnite’s decision to take on one of the most valuable companies in the world could have a big impact on the streaming landscape. To explore just one part of that look, I imagine a “maximalist” scenario where app stores and platforms everywhere can’t charge excessive rents. The impacts may surprise you. (This is part of my continuing series analyzing the streaming wars.)
“Most Important Story of the Week: Apple One, The Aggressively Moderate Take” at my website.
A lot of people are very bullish on Apple. I tried to fit in the moderate middle on their newest subscription: It’s fine, but I don’t think it’s a game changer either. (I am fairly pessimistic on Apple TV+, though, their streaming service without a library.) Strangely, the biggest weakness is that they could be more aggressive on losing money, but that means they’ll be more likely to generate meaningful cash flow sooner. Read about that plus Roku/Peacock come to an agreement, Paramount+ and ViacomCBS’s global ambitions and more.
“Most Important Story of the Week: How X-Box Could Impact Entertainment” at my website.
As a long time X-Box owner, I care about the prices for new X-Boxes. Wearing my strategy hat, though, I think this story could impact the range of entertainment, from video games to streaming, because for many customers the video game console is the set-top box of their living room. Read about that plus Tenet’s box office results, more HBO Max pricing confusion, “lots of news with no news” and more.
Twitter Threads
Two good “data threads” this month. First, I’ve been monitoring a few new places that are attempting to collect Netflix viewership.
Then, in the prequel to my big article on Mulan this week, I looked at the initial data from opening weekend.
The Best Content of the Last Two Weeks
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Long Read of the Week - “From ‘Poor as Hell’ to Billionaire: How Tyler Perry Changed Show Business Forever” by Madeline Berg in Forbes
Certain creators do have the hit gene in their bodies. I consider Tyler Perry one of those creators. Moreover, he’s always been innovative in business too, keeping ownership on everything, buying resources to leverage later, and entering into creative deals to get shows on the air. In his latest move, he managed to start production in Atlanta by quarantining cast and crew. He’s a genius on both sides of the entertainment divide, and this is a good read by Berg.
Other Long Read - “The Onslaught of Media Acronyms Must End” by Gavin Bridge at Variety VIP (Pay Wall)
As someone who has tried to coin an acronym or two on his own website, this feels partially like a shot at me! Still, I agree with Bridge’s point. We have too many acronyms and too often they muddy the actual distinctions versus clarifying the purposes. Plus, this article has some good definitions for the uninitiated. (And warning, it is behind a paywall.)
Other Long Read - “What Paramount+ Means for Netflix” by Kasey Moore on Whats-On-Netflix
Sure, Moore links to me (and I appreciate it!) but you should read this article because it is one of the best rundowns on how all the pieces could unfold if Paramount+ claws back rights to ViacomCBS shows. For US-based observers, in particular, we forget how many shows sell their global rights (ex-US) to Netflix, like Paramount with Star Trek: Discovery. Long term, losing all of NCIS and Criminal Minds in the US and Star Trek globally means Netflix needs to be nearly perfect on their content spend to replace it all.
Other Long Read - “Microsoft’s Xbox Game Plan Has Big Problems” by Tae Kim at Bloomberg
Tae makes a fairly compelling case that X-Box ix trying to have it both ways—a low priced X-Box that appeals broad consumers and a high-end model for gamers—could mean it winds up with neither. This article also has some good numbers on how far ahead Playstation in than X-Box in the video game wars, a lead which could get entrenched by PS4’s social networks.
Non-Entertainment Read - “They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?” By Elizabeth Weil at ProPublica
I try to stay non-political in this newsletter and on my site, and I’m featuring this article because it is a sober look at the causes behind the wildfires that just hit the West Coast. For the business minded, it’s pretty clear that misaligned incentives have encouraged most of the decision-makers in California to ignore the scientific evidence on the need for controlled fires during non-wildfire seasons. Sometimes data isn’t just numbers, but listening to experts analyze the history. It’s good advice for politics and business to align incentives to achieve the best results.
Twitter Threads
7 Park cofounder Brian Lichtenberger explained his company’s Mulan data in an excellent thread here:
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(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.)