The Entertainment Strategy Guide to 8-Dec-20
Netflix Subscribers, Comcast and AT&T Break the Windows, and Your Top Three Streamers
My goal is to send this newsletter out every two weeks, but this current edition is about three weeks late, like last time. A Thanksgiving Holiday put me behind schedule, and I’ve been trying to get back on track. As such, this week we’ll have a surfeit of articles of mine to catch up on.
Also, since this newsletter is free—and its chock full of great articles—feel free to forward to anyone and everyone. Actually, I’d love it if you do that.
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The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
“Netflix Has as Many Subscribers as Disney+ and Prime Video Put Together In the United States” Series at my website
My biggest article of the month (and maybe the year) was publishing estimates of the number of US subscriber for each of the major streaming companies. Since folks rightfully want to want to know how I came up with these estimates, I put my math here and here. The key takeaway is that Netflix is in the top tier by itself, but Disney+, HBO Max, Hulu and Prime Video are in a second tier by themselves, while a bundle of players are in another tier below that. Read the whole long series for the gory details to this beautiful chart:
“‘The Mandalorian’ vs. ‘The Queen’s Gambit’: What Won November 2020?” at Decider
My recurring feature at Decider is back, this time looking at November (with some October shows and films as well). Ultimately, I gave the crown to The Mandalorian, which just dominated most streaming metrics, including making it on Nielsen’s Top Ten for consecutive weeks. (Read previous editions for September/August and July if you missed them.)
Visuals of the Week - “Why Most Netflix Subscriber Charts No Longer Include the US Only Numbers” and “The Top Four Licensed Shows on Netflix Account for 6% of Netflix’s Viewing in the US” at my website
Netflix was the subject of my two most recent “visuals of the week”. In the first, I updated my history of Netflix subscriber counts, showing the myriad of ways that Netflix has defined a “US subscriber”. (It’s more complicated than you think.) Then, I used my growing Nielsen database of top ten streaming shows to explore how four big licensed shows (The Office, Grey’s Anatomy, Criminal Minds and NCIS) dominate Netflix’s viewing.
“4 Big Reasons Why Warner Bros Decided To Send Their 2021 Slate Straight to HBO Max” at Decider
Warner Bros decision to release their entire 2021 slate “day-and-date” with their theatrical releases was such big news I wrote this guest article for Decider and several hundred more words at my website on it. Ultimately, I think AT&T is responding to market signals: if the street only cares about subscriber growth, this is the move that will deliver it. (I didn’t realize at the time they hadn’t discussed this move with talent, production partners or theater chains.)
Windows are falling left and right, and Comcast started with their big plan to release films after three weeks in theaters to Premium-Video-On-Demand. I explored why Comcast made this big move and how it could impact the rest of the industry, which feels like it happened ages ago given all the news since.
“Most Important Story of the Week: Discovery+ Is Almost As Big as the Warner Bros 2021 News” at my website.
While we were all obsessing with Warner Bros’ HBO Max 2021 news, we neglected the new roll out of Discovery+. Discovery (and their associated cable channels/reality content) isn’t sexy. Or buzzy. But it’s watched by quite a lot of people, so I think it will have a chance to move up in my streaming rankings when I do future estimates.
As for Warner Bros, while my Decider article explained why the move is happening, my column explores what could happen to the various parts of the video landscape/value chain.
“Most Important Story of the Week: Wonder Woman 1984 and the Messy Estimates of Customer Lifetime Value” at my website.
Before we knew HBO Max would get all of Warner Bros 2021 catalogue, we were dealing with the fallout of Wonder Woman 1984 going to HBO Max for Christmas. I explored the messy financials of Customer Lifetime Value and why predicting if this is a good move is so difficult. That plus HBO Max to Fire Devices, Rick & Morty, Roblox’s IPO and more.
The Best Content of the Last Two Weeks
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Listen of the Week - iFanboy “Mediasplode #9 – Are Streaming Movies Just TV Movies?, The Best Streaming Services, and The Top 5 Christmas Movies!”
I listen to iFanboy for their weekly update on the best comics to read. But the iFanboy crew are folks well versed in media in general, so their comments on the streaming wars are worth listening to. Specifically, Josh Flanagan discusses how streaming films don’t feel as special as theatrical releases (I agree) and then the group holds a draft of their personal top 3 streaming services. That’s where the conversation gets really fun and their picks may surprise you. In total, the gang illustrates a few different realities of the streaming wars (sometimes unintentionally) like the strength of the traditional cable bundle, how a few shows can make a service worth subscribing, and how kids can change the entire subscription calculus.
Take a listen!
Newsletter of the Week - Hedgeye’s Andrew Freedman on Netflix’s India Streamfest
In India, Netflix recently held a free weekend of streaming to drive subscriber growth. (A move I love, but also is hardly revolutionary, given that cable has done free weekends of HBO and Showtime since the dawn of time, er cable.) Freedman digs into the numbers to figure out what this could do for global subscriber numbers this year. (This is behind a paywall, but he is one of the best media and entertainment research analysts working.)
Newsletter of the Week - “What to expect from Disney's biggest day of 2020” by Julia Alexander’s Musings on Mouse
Julia makes some predictions before Disney’s Investor Day tomorrow and I love with folks do that. I love her bold call that Disney will announce 100 million subscribers to Disney+. (I’m currently estimating 90 million, but 100 wouldn’t surprise me either.)
Long Reads of the Week - The HBO Max/2021 Move Columns to Read
Is this cheating? Probably. But if you missed these four columns, I think (together with yours truly’s explanation) they explain why HBO Max did this big move, but also what could go wrong and the potential future fallout:
Richard Rushfield at the Ankler "Special Dispatch: Mad Max”
Bart & Fleming Discuss at Deadline
Kim Master at THR “Christopher Nolan Rips HBO Max as "Worst Streaming Service," Denounces Warner Bros.' Plan”
Alex Sherman at CNBC on the Changes at HBO Since the Merger
(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.)