The Entertainment Strategy Guide to 24-February-21
When Could Covid End, Niche Streamers, FASTs, Amazon and More
Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter! My favorite reads, listens, socials and more to keep you informed on the business of entertainment, with the links to my recent articles.
For months, the theme of entertainment wasn’t far off from the themes of all business: lockdowns, disruption and general responding to a once in a century (we hope) global pandemic. In the months coming up, we’ll see a similar story in reverse, as lockdowns ease, entertainment and live events will come back, the same but different.
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The Best of the Entertainment Strategy Guy
“Why I Think Theaters Will Return in May: Forecasting When Society Can Reopen” at my website.
I had hoped to write a few more articles in February, but I was distracted/fascinated by the story of the vaccine roll out in America. And the rapid decline in Covid-19 cases. Both of which relate to the biggest question in entertainment: when can theaters and live events restart? I’m not an epidemiologist, but as a strategist I wanted to figure out an answer for myself. This very, very long article is one of my favorites I’ve written this year, and potentially one of the most important.
“Nielsen’s New Top 30 Streaming Video Ratings…Explained! Plus a Visual of the Week” at my website.
What a surprise for 2021 from Nielsen! They’ve moved from one top ten list for streaming to three weekly top ten lists, differentiating between films, Originals and acquired shows . This tripling of their weekly data will provide a ton more insights into everything from how fast TV series and films are losing viewership to better insights into the non-Netflix streamers. I explain that plus a “visual of the week” comparing how Disney’s films do better all year long to Netlfix’s films, which do better on the weekly rankings.
“Kids Programming is “Easy Strategy” – Most Important Story of the Week” at my website.
Speaking of kids programming, all the streamers want in. It’s (relatively) cheap to produce, which is why you have Apple TV signing a big distribution deal with Skydance Animation to Netflix planning six animated films per year to HBO Max launching a preschool programming block. Why is this gold rush happening? I explain both the pros and cons of kids programming in my latest weekly column. That plus why Roku is considering originals, a big weekend for theaters in China, and Disney’s European Originals plan.
“Another Aggregator Leaves Another Bundler – Explaining ViacomCBS Ending Their Apple TV Bundle - Most Important Story of the Week” at my website.
While everyone was speculating about a merger that likely won’t happen, my eye was drawn to the quiet news story that Apple and CBS won’t be bundling Showtime and CBS All-Access together after it is rebranded to Paramount+. In general, this is the smart strategy for ViacomCBS, if they hold the line and truly build a general purpose streamer. That plus some more Covid-19 thoughts, Cinemascore updates and a big Sundance sale.
“Was Prime Video a Loss Leader or Loss Loser? – Most Important Story of the Week” and “Earnings Reports Galore – Other Contenders for the Story of the Week” at my website.
When a big studio head departs, I don’t usually give it top billing in my “story of the week” column. That’s because, frankly, lots of studio heads don’t actually develop truly great strategy. Hence most of the studios trot out mostly the same type of movies produced in mostly the same way and marketed using the same tactics. Jeff Bezos obviously doesn’t fit that mold. He really did change the game. (He also wasn’t technically a studio head, but he is excessively wealthy and owns quite a bit of entertainment now.)
How his departure will impact the larger entertainment industry depends on what Amazon does with Prime Video, which was the most important story of the week. And that depends on the answer to this fascinating question: Does Prime Video actually return value for Amazon?
I answer all that in part one, and then in part two dive into earnings reports, peak TV, and lots of news with no news in this column spread over two weeks.
Twitter Threads
Here were my most popular tweets or threads over the last few weeks. First, my summary thread of my big Covid article (if you don’t want to read the entire thing):
Second, my snarkiest comment of the month, mainly driven by the fact that two years ago no one could stop Netlfix, and now most analysts concede that Disney will at least share the streaming crown. But will it stop there?
Other Shout Outs
The EntStrategyGuy is being cited all over the place. Check out the LA Times new “Wide Shot” newsletter for one shout out, Julia Alexander’s Musings on Mouse for another, Sonny Bunch’s Bulwark newsletter for a shout out on my Covid article and Andrew Rosen’s PARQOR newsletter for another. (If you link to my stuff, and I happen to miss it, let me know.)
The Best Content of the Last Three Weeks
(These are the best reads, listens, newsletters, or social conversations I came across last week.)
Long Read of the Week - “Audiences and Advertisers Embrace the Early Cable Aesthetic of Pluto TV, Other Free Streaming Platforms” by Michael Schneider in Variety
This deep dive into FASTs (free, ad-supported TV) is great for a lot of reasons, but the opening anecdote about how useful the “guide” function is might be the best part. I’ve long argued that the Guide/DVR list is the greatest UX interface in TV, and that’s a controversial opinion in the age of Netflix. It seems clear that FASTs/AVOD services will have a role in the future of the streaming bundle and Schneider’s profile of Pluto does a good job of explaining the upside of this growing new brand of streamer. (It is also an implicit celebration of the extensive library of ViacomCBS.)
Other Long Read - “Is There room for Small, Niche Streaming Service?” By Julia Alexander at The Verge
I often recommend Julia Alexander articles, but this one includes a quiz! How could I not recommend it? (Some of the niche services even surprised me.)
Past the quiz, Alexander explores the fundamental tension of the streaming wars, which is that general purpose streamers are bigger and can throw their weight around, but smaller streamers can find niches and survive. The economics of digital are such that “winner take all” economics are as important as “super niche targeting”, which both can happen in streaming. Frankly, this dynamic also existed back in linear channels, which a new channel would start out “niche” and then move up the value chain.
Other Long Read - “Charting 2020: Sportico’s Best Data Visualization Stories”
Who isn’t a sucker for a good chart? Sportico has a great list of their best visualizations in this look back at 2020. My favorites were the chart on team sales over time and the decline in home field advantage over time.
Non-Entertainment Read - “The Activists Who Embrace Nuclear Power” by Rebecca Tuhus-Dubrow
As a “data person”, nuclear energy has always had a strong appeal to me as a key solution to greenhouse emissions. Yes, the industry is far from perfect and nuclear waste is still a problem, but carbon is a much bigger problem. I appreciated this article from Tuhus-Dubrow, precisely because it appeals not to the data angle, but to the human/emotional angle. That’s what is holding back nuclear power, and solving that problem is much harder than the data piece.
Newsletter of the Week - Volts by David Roberts
David Robert’s ability to explain complex environmental topics has been one of the inspirations for my writing. He recently left Vox to start his own newsletter and I immediately subscribed when I heard about it. If you want to feel both better and worse about the climate crisis, he’s the best source to read. I’d recommend starting with his series on “transmission”, which shows both the huge hurdles to overcome, but also the technologies and policies we can implement to make a clean grid.
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(If this email was forwarded to you, and you’re wondering who I am, The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.)