42 of the Biggest Film Flops, Bombs and Misses in the First Half of 2024
EntStrategyGuy’s 2024 H1 Viewership Report
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.)
Here’s perhaps the funniest/oddest streaming viewership factoid of the year:
Notorious box office bomb Madame Web crushed it on the streaming ratings charts this year.
No seriously, see for yourself:
It had the fifth biggest opening week this year at 19.4 million hours! In terms of viewing in the first four weeks, it’s actually the ninth biggest film on streaming this year. I bring this up because...it’s that time of year! Time to check in on the worst-performing films in the first half of 2024. And Madame Web’s performance is really good context for all of the ratings (or lack thereof) that follow. When a box office bomb can deliver strong streaming numbers, it says something.
If you want to read the full methodology for how I assemble this list, it’s at the bottom of this article. In short, this article is…
...scripted and unscripted films,
…that went straight-to-streaming,
...from the eight major streamers,
...in the US (using US-only ratings),
...excluding true crime, short films (anything shorter than twenty minutes), “making of” specials, and foreign-language films.
Some notes: First, price matters. If a film costs north of $100 million, then it needs to get lots and lots of streaming viewership to justify that budget. For films, I don’t make a distinction between a “flop” and a “flop for them”. (This will be different next week when we get to TV shows.)
Next, we have a fun ratings data update! We now have Luminate’s weekly top ten data, which is great! More data is always better. For movies, Luminate’s top ten list only includes straight-to-streaming films, which is bad news for a lot of films. If a film misses the Luminate charts, that’s a really bad sign and, worse, some films made the charts with really low viewership, just confirming what we already knew or should have suspected.
As with past editions, I ordered this list by streamer, going from best (least number of flops) to worst (the most misses), taking the size of the flops into consideration. Reminder: this article does not represent my personal opinion—many of these films are great!—but I follow the data and a miss is a miss, and a bomb is a bomb.
For the first time in the bi-annual flops, bombs and misses collection, I included some notable theatrical streaming flops at the very end of the article. In terms of putting together the most comprehensive, accurate look at films on streaming in 2024, this just seems fair.
The Key Question: Should Films Go to Theaters First?
Looking at the business context this year, 2024 has been a rough year at both the box office...and on streaming. Starting with theatrical releases, even after a terrific June, July and August, box office receipts are still down about 15% compared to last year. Why? Well, as I wrote for the Ankler last March, it’s an issue of supply. Not enough films are going to theaters these days.
Unfortunately, as I covered for The Ankler, streaming hasn’t had a lot of success either in launching straight-to-streaming films this year. There were some (Damsel, Road House, and Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F), but not a lot.
At least three streamers (Netflix, Amazon, and Apple) still send a fair number of big-budget films straight-to-streaming. (After committing to theaters last year, Apple Studios has reversed course, and started pulling films from their theatrical calendar.) And Hulu (mostly via Searchlight, post-Fox merger with Disney) still sends a fair number of films straight-to-Hulu.
The question is why. As for Apple and Amazon, I think we know why they’re not sending films to theaters: they don’t want the negative PR, as I wrote about here and here. As for Netflix, it’s a strategic decision, just one I don’t agree with or think that the data supports. Both Reed Hastings and Ted Sarandos have repeatedly said that they’re not in the theatrical business. That said, Netflix sure seems to rely on theatrically-released films like Madame Web. Finally, for everyone else, if you see a film go straight-to-streaming, I think it means that the studio is burying it.
Thus that key question—“Should these streaming flops have gone to theaters?—lingers over this entire article, as it has the last couple of editions. Each streamer offers a different answer to that question.
Apple TV+
Fancy Dance
Honorable Mentions: The Bloody Hundredth, Girls State
Winner: Fancy Dance
Unlike the TV side of things, Apple TV+ was actually the most successful streamer in terms of film flops, meaning that they had the least (for the first half of the year). Even though Argylle flopped at the box office and on streaming, at least they gave it a chance in theaters.
But the same can’t be said for Lily Gladstone and Sundance Lab’s indie film, Fancy Dance. Sundance, the BlackList, IllumiNative, and others worked hard to highlight the work of diverse voices, then this film was sold to Apple, who essentially buried it in June. Looking at this strategically, if your goal is increasing representation on screen, this choice to sell to Apple without a guaranteed theatrical release didn’t advance that goal.
Disney+
The Beach Boys
Jim Henson: Idea Man
Madu
Tiger
Honorable Mentions: Tigers on the Rise
On the one hand, Disney+ had a good year, mainly because they’ve stopped sending big budget films (like Pinocchio or Peter Pan & Wendy) directly to Disney+, knowing that even box office bombs like Wish can get 17 million hours in its first week once it came to Disney+. Instead, all of their film misses were unscripted documentaries. That said...